Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2245 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2245 IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4978 IAH 19:23 → MCO 23:05 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	8%	3%	15.6%	94%
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	14%	4%	16.7%	86%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	18%	6%	17.3%	86%
UA 2323 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	MCO 23:22	22%	7%	17.4%	77%
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	23%	7%	17.3%	81%
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	MCO 20:29	23%	7%	16.8%	82%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	25%	7%	17.4%	80%
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	28%	10%	16.9%	77%
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 19:23	MCO 23:05	32%	13%	16.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON