Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1047 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1047 IAH 05:10 → MIA 08:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1931 IAH 18:12 → MIA 21:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1047 American Flight history →	IAH 05:10	MIA 08:51	9%	4%	1.2%	91%
UA 1966 United Flight history →	IAH 07:25	MIA 11:12	13%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 07:35	MIA 11:20	16%	5%	1.2%	87%
AA 603 American Flight history →	IAH 09:40	MIA 13:22	24%	7%	3.4%	75%
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	26%	9%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AA 1918 American Flight history →	IAH 11:20	MIA 15:01	29%	9%	3.5%	57%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 19:01	MIA 22:40	31%	10%	1.2%	78%
F9 1068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:37	MIA 00:31	34%	15%	3.2%	67%
UA 2740 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	MIA 20:33	36%	10%	1.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 1931 American Flight history →	IAH 18:12	MIA 21:50	37%	11%	1.9%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON