Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5297 at 19:57, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5297 IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5297 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:57	MKE 22:45	17%	6%	0.7%	62%
UA 6149 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:20	MKE 10:05	7%	3%	0.0%	93%
UA 6164 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	MKE 17:06	19%	4%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON