Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1050 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1050 IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2678 IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1050 Delta Flight history →	IAH 06:30	MSP 09:13	7%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 2469 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	MSP 10:53	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2656 Delta Flight history →	IAH 10:49	MSP 13:36	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 2378 United Flight history →	IAH 20:35	MSP 23:29	17%	6%	0.7%	69%
UA 2150 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	MSP 17:12	17%	7%	0.6%	70%
DL 2617 Delta Flight history →	IAH 17:40	MSP 20:32	20%	7%	0.7%	74%
DL 2678 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:35	MSP 17:26	20%	7%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON