tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 3131 Frontier Flight history → IAH 06:10 ONT 07:32 17% 4% 0.8% 78%
UA 1563 United Flight history → IAH 20:31 ONT 21:55 20% 6% 0.7% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 20m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 6h 17m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 6h 35m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → ONT 09:29AA 2238 6h 27m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 19:01 → SLC 21:15DL 1299 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 47m 92% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 37m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 42m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:22UA 699 2h 56m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 21m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:45AA 2242 7h 43m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:00 → DFW 08:31AA 3002 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:22AA 2239 8h 22m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25AA 1929 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711 5h 39m 72% 49%
UnitedDetails → IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341 50m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 6h 32m 64% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON