Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1044 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1913 IAH 18:48 → ORD 22:01 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:05	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:01	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 06:13	ORD 09:07	7%	4%	1.0%	89%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	ORD 12:29	9%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 2827 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	ORD 14:51	12%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1752 United Flight history →	IAH 22:08	ORD 00:45	13%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 2458 United Flight history →	IAH 13:41	ORD 16:39	14%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 787 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	ORD 23:15	16%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	IAH 11:26	ORD 14:17	17%	7%	0.9%	64%
UA 699 United Flight history →	IAH 14:30	ORD 17:22	18%	7%	0.6%	68%
UA 2135 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	ORD 20:05	19%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	22%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 4426 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IAH 17:02	ORD 20:24	22%	6%	1.0%	77%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	IAH 13:36	ORD 16:35	23%	8%	0.9%	52%
F9 3136 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 21:58	ORD 00:49	23%	8%	1.6%	67%
AA 1913 American Flight history →	IAH 18:48	ORD 22:01	25%	9%	1.3%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON