Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2439 at 18:24, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2439 United Flight history →	IAH 18:24	ORF 22:30	20%	6%	0.7%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549	1h 37m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa	5h 57m	97%	89%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	2h 53m Denver	DEN 09:40 → ORF 15:18UA 2011	9h 03m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925	6h 05m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 15:27 → DTW 19:15DL 1865	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	7h 05m	99%	84%
United Details →	IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 12:22 → ORF 15:50UA 5449 · flown by SkyWest	8h 40m	100%	82%
United Details →	IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886	3h 31m Newark	EWR 15:30 → ORF 17:03UA 3603 · flown by Republic	8h 43m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 45m	100%	82%
American Details →	IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 12:35 → ORF 13:49AA 2255	6h 48m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON