Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 740 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 740 IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 1421 IAH 18:19 → PDX 20:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 740 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	PDX 11:56	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 1964 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	PDX 19:18	17%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 1420 United Flight history →	IAH 20:17	PDX 22:48	18%	6%	0.7%	79%
AS 1421 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 18:19	PDX 20:50	24%	6%	0.8%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	1h 18m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247	6h 32m	97%	89%
United Details →	IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816	1h 22m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	6h 39m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 35m	94%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON