Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2642 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2642 IAH 07:31 → PHL 11:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1925 IAH 16:27 → PHL 20:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2642 United Flight history →	IAH 07:31	PHL 11:58	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 2561 American Flight history →	IAH 07:01	PHL 11:23	9%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 1927 American Flight history →	IAH 12:21	PHL 16:49	19%	7%	0.7%	55%
AA 1925 American Flight history →	IAH 16:27	PHL 20:55	21%	8%	0.8%	70%
UA 3991 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:05	PHL 22:43	40%	15%	0.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON