Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1895 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1895 IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1703 IAH 11:51 → PHX 12:34 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1895 United Flight history →	IAH 09:40	PHX 10:34	12%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1937 American Flight history →	IAH 08:32	PHX 09:24	15%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 1238 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	PHX 15:10	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
AA 2710 American Flight history →	IAH 14:25	PHX 15:16	21%	7%	0.7%	80%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	IAH 19:53	PHX 20:42	21%	8%	0.8%	72%
UA 2432 United Flight history →	IAH 21:40	PHX 22:25	21%	8%	0.8%	56%
UA 1507 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	PHX 17:40	22%	7%	0.7%	71%
AA 640 American Flight history →	IAH 17:39	PHX 18:28	27%	9%	0.9%	76%
F9 1703 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 11:51	PHX 12:34	29%	8%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON