tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1259 at 18:50, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1259 United Flight history → IAH 18:50 RIC 22:51 23% 7% 0.6% 64%
UA 4057 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:03 RIC 16:11 11% 4% 0.9% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RIC 13:57UA 3704 · flown by Republic 7h 53m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 16m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:05DL 1437 6h 05m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 1h 32m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 5h 41m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 03m Denver DEN 09:50 → RIC 15:12UA 2030 8h 57m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 08:05 → ATL 11:10DL 644 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 7h 18m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:01UA 1617 3h 29m Chicago ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic 8h 44m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886 2h 51m Newark EWR 14:50 → RIC 16:27UA 3610 · flown by Republic 8h 07m 98% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146 5h 36m 38% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON