tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1361 United Flight history → IAH 12:19 RSW 15:52 19% 7% 8.5% 85%
UA 2778 United Flight history → IAH 18:33 RSW 21:59 23% 7% 9.3% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102 8h 40m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 48m Denver DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:22UA 2601 9h 07m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 1h 47m Denver DEN 16:04 → RSW 21:50UA 2348 8h 17m 95% 68%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 35m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:26DL 2678 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268 8h 17m 92% 67%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → RSW 17:06DL 402 9h 36m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:51UA 2827 1h 35m Chicago ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618 7h 39m 94% 67%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 31m 99% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON