Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2491 IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2407 IAH 20:03 → SAN 21:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2491 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SAN 10:51	17%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 2399 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	SAN 13:21	18%	7%	0.7%	83%
UA 2751 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	SAN 17:41	23%	8%	0.7%	75%
UA 2407 United Flight history →	IAH 20:03	SAN 21:24	24%	7%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON