Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 453 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AS 453 IAH 06:02 → SEA 08:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 692 IAH 18:30 → SEA 21:18 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 453 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 06:02	SEA 08:40	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 2654 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	SEA 10:47	16%	3%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
UA 2205 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SEA 12:47	19%	5%	0.6%	77%
AS 241 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 08:00	SEA 10:41	21%	5%	0.6%	85%
AS 439 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 14:38	SEA 17:21	24%	8%	0.7%	72%
UA 2638 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SEA 19:12	28%	9%	0.6%	67%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	SEA 22:42	29%	8%	0.7%	73%
UA 692 United Flight history →	IAH 18:30	SEA 21:18	34%	9%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	1h 14m Denver	DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:00UA 2271	6h 45m	97%	79%
United Details →	IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816	1h 16m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424	6h 51m	93%	76%
American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SEA 09:25AA 707	6h 23m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON