Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 487 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 487 IAH 05:22 → SFO 07:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1341 IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 487 United Flight history →	IAH 05:22	SFO 07:22	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1768 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SFO 09:25	14%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	IAH 21:59	SFO 00:05	17%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	20%	8%	0.6%	80%
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	21%	8%	0.6%	73%
UA 2756 United Flight history →	IAH 12:58	SFO 15:03	23%	8%	0.6%	68%
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	25%	7%	0.6%	74%
UA 1976 United Flight history →	IAH 19:35	SFO 21:44	26%	9%	0.6%	33%
UA 1341 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	SFO 20:10	28%	9%	0.6%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949	5h 51m	92%	73%
United Details →	IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491	53m San Diego	SAN 11:44 → SFO 13:30UA 2428	6h 00m	78%	57%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216	50m Los Angeles	LAX 09:20 → SFO 10:42DL 1715	5h 32m	78%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON