Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5765 IAH 14:28 → SHV 15:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 5396 IAH 18:06 → SHV 19:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5765 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 14:28	SHV 15:41	15%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 5395 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 21:40	SHV 22:44	15%	6%	1.0%	74%
UA 4682 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:50	SHV 21:03	17%	8%	1.0%	73%
UA 6026 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 16:10	SHV 17:21	17%	7%	0.9%	74%
UA 5396 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:06	SHV 19:19	20%	8%	1.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON