tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1882 United Flight history → IAH 10:00 SJC 12:03 14% 4% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 40m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 6h 54m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 11m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:15 → SJC 10:49AA 2572 7h 47m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 53m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 7h 50m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 10:31 → DEN 12:07UA 1409 3h 48m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:34UA 1883 9h 03m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 47m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 8h 09m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 7h 31m 89% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 69% 63%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890 46m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 7h 58m 68% 57%
AmericanDetails → IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25AA 1929 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 6h 05m 72% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON