Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 05:22, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2773 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SMF 12:07	16%	5%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
UA 1148 United Flight history →	IAH 20:35	SMF 22:43	21%	7%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	1h 13m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	6h 20m	97%	90%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	8h 47m	98%	86%
United Details →	IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816	1h 25m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SMF 13:05UA 1415	6h 35m	100%	85%
United Details →	IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:29UA 2110	1h 51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:20 → SMF 10:56UA 5372 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 41m	96%	84%
United Details →	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 39m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 12:05 → SMF 13:32DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest	8h 22m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	8h 02m	68%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON