Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1383 IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2780 IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1383 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SNA 10:59	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2761 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	SNA 21:45	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 2780 United Flight history →	IAH 12:30	SNA 14:03	16%	6%	0.6%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 08:32 → PHX 09:24AA 1937	51m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → SNA 11:43AA 2655	5h 11m	81%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON