Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 04m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438	6h 13m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 54m	98%	70%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 08m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 36m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	7h 14m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115	5h 44m	96%	65%
American Details →	IAH 08:54 → CLT 12:30AA 3162	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 14:51 → SRQ 16:48AA 5627 · flown by PSA	6h 54m	93%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 18:12 → MIA 21:50AA 1931	1h 04m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	4h 47m	65%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON