Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Miami, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1908 United Flight history →	IAH 09:52	STT 15:43	13%	5%	0.7%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte Amalie is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902	7h 43m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889	7h 20m	96%	76%
American Details →	IAH 05:10 → MIA 08:51AA 1047	1h 16m Miami	MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744	6h 49m	96%	75%
American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:05 → STT 16:11AA 2943	10h 09m	98%	75%
American Details →	IAH 07:35 → MIA 11:20AA 1347	1h 48m Miami	MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738	7h 25m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON