tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4040 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 20:00 TUS 20:42 17% 11% 0.0% 83%
UA 6219 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 09:32 TUS 10:07 18% 10% 0.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 3h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest 9h 08m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:59 → TUS 12:35DL 937 8h 55m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 6h 02m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → TUS 08:38AA 1014 5h 36m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:25 → SFO 18:30UA 382 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 9h 01m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:05 → TUS 21:49DL 1251 9h 11m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:00 → DFW 08:31AA 3002 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926 7h 26m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:09 → LAX 17:30DL 1143 1h 51m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 91% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890 52m Atlanta ATL 21:05 → TUS 21:49DL 1251 6h 58m 73% 55%
UnitedDetails → IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341 47m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 7h 21m 62% 49%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:35 → SFO 11:35UA 2358 48m San Francisco SFO 12:23 → TUS 14:47UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 62% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON