Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5300 at 11:55, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5300 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 11:55	TVC 16:03	24%	6%	0.7%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	95%	83%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	2h 58m Denver	DEN 09:45 → TVC 14:26UA 1887	8h 11m	99%	80%
American Details →	IAH 06:01 → CLT 09:43AA 2011	3h 22m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → TVC 15:31AA 5628 · flown by PSA	8h 30m	99%	80%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → TVC 13:13UA 2807	7h 09m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	IAH 15:27 → DTW 19:15DL 1865	3h 44m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	7h 41m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → TVC 13:27DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	99%	77%
American Details →	IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 11:55 → TVC 14:18AA 6379 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	98%	75%
United Details →	IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:05UA 2616	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → TVC 15:10UA 6033 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON