Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4090 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4090 ICT 06:25 → DEN 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 5630 ICT 17:15 → DEN 18:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4090 Southwest Flight history →	ICT 06:25	DEN 06:55	4%	1%	0.5%	91%
UA 5355 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 06:08	DEN 06:53	7%	3%	0.5%	92%
UA 5972 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:35	DEN 14:20	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 4804 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 11:53	DEN 12:38	16%	6%	0.5%	82%
UA 2789 United Flight history →	ICT 09:34	DEN 10:12	19%	4%	0.5%	77%
WN 4644 Southwest Flight history →	ICT 14:30	DEN 15:00	23%	5%	0.5%	69%
UA 5418 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 18:48	DEN 19:45	23%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 5630 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 17:15	DEN 18:17	23%	6%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON