Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5327 at 15:28, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5327 ICT 15:28 → IAH 17:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5327 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 15:28	IAH 17:25	20%	8%	0.7%	66%
UA 4917 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ICT 06:30	IAH 08:23	13%	9%	0.0%	87%
UA 6208 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ICT 09:15	IAH 11:10	19%	10%	0.0%	81%
UA 4316 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ICT 17:00	IAH 19:03	23%	12%	3.1%	77%
UA 4378 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ICT 12:20	IAH 14:17	28%	8%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON