tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2104 at 12:40, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2104 Southwest Flight history → ICT 12:40 LAS 13:15 21% 5% 0.5% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ICT 06:25 → DEN 06:55WN 4090 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 5h 00m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 4h 59m 95% 88%
SouthwestDetails → ICT 05:05 → MDW 06:55WN 2105 2h 15m Chicago MDW 09:10 → LAS 11:00WN 2794 7h 55m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 17m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → ICT 07:23 → MSP 09:20DL 3542 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 03m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:30 → IAH 08:23UA 4917 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 32m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 43m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:15 → IAH 11:10UA 6208 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 22m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786 1h 25m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440 7h 40m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ICT 17:15 → DEN 18:17UA 5630 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 4h 53m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON