Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2105 Southwest Flight history →	ICT 05:05	MDW 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 1276 Southwest Flight history →	ICT 15:55	MDW 17:55	13%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ICT 06:25 → DEN 06:55WN 4090	3h 05m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	7h 00m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637	49m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 04m	87%	72%
Southwest Details →	ICT 14:30 → DEN 15:00WN 4644	2h 35m Denver	DEN 17:35 → MDW 21:00WN 1604	6h 30m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	ICT 12:40 → LAS 13:15WN 2104	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 16:05 → MDW 21:45WN 2274	9h 05m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	ICT 07:23 → MSP 09:20DL 3542 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	5h 46m	97%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ICT 14:30 → DEN 15:00WN 4644	50m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	4h 45m	72%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON