tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3542 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → ICT 07:23 MSP 09:20 5% 3% 0.5% 91%
DL 3595 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → ICT 15:50 MSP 17:40 13% 5% 0.5% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ICT 05:05 → MDW 06:55WN 2105 3h 20m Chicago MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869 6h 40m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Denver DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397 6h 26m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → ICT 06:25 → DEN 06:55WN 4090 55m Denver DEN 07:50 → MSP 10:55WN 3420 4h 30m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 5h 48m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:34 → DEN 10:12UA 2789 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 7h 12m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ICT 06:00 → PHX 06:32AA 3907 · flown by Envoy 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → MSP 13:54AA 1750 7h 54m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:00 → ORD 07:13AA 4043 · flown by Envoy 1h 02m Chicago ORD 08:15 → MSP 10:01AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 5h 01m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:15 → IAH 11:10UA 6208 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 14:20 → MSP 17:12UA 2150 7h 57m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON