Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4043 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4043 ICT 05:00 → ORD 07:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3471 ICT 18:16 → ORD 20:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4043 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 05:00	ORD 07:13	7%	3%	1.3%	92%
UA 786 United Flight history →	ICT 07:25	ORD 09:35	9%	3%	0.8%	86%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 10:57	ORD 13:10	17%	7%	1.0%	80%
AA 6283 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:48	ORD 15:59	21%	9%	1.2%	76%
UA 5335 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 14:45	ORD 17:02	23%	10%	1.2%	74%
AA 3471 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 18:16	ORD 20:37	25%	7%	2.2%	89%worse than usual
UA 4565 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ICT 06:00	ORD 08:08	16%	7%	2.9%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON