tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ICT 06:00 PHX 06:32 7% 3% 0.6% 87%
AA 6473 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ICT 12:39 PHX 13:10 17% 7% 0.6% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ICT 06:25 → DEN 06:55WN 4090 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:30 → PHX 09:25WN 431 5h 00m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → ICT 05:05 → MDW 06:55WN 2105 1h 45m Chicago MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016 7h 15m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481 4h 52m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → ICT 07:23 → MSP 09:20DL 3542 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 7h 23m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 20m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:15 → IAH 11:10UA 6208 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 14:20 → PHX 15:10UA 1238 7h 55m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:30 → IAH 08:23UA 4917 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 6h 04m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → ICT 11:53 → DEN 12:38UA 4804 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 6h 42m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ICT 17:00 → IAH 19:03UA 4316 · flown by CommuteAir 50m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 5h 42m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON