tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record ICT 15:06 SEA 16:54 14% 3% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 07:23 → MSP 09:20DL 3542 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 7h 37m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648 9h 52m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → ICT 06:25 → DEN 06:55WN 4090 50m Denver DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713 5h 20m 94% 79%
SouthwestDetails → ICT 05:05 → MDW 06:55WN 2105 3h 45m Chicago MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340 10h 05m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:00UA 2271 5h 52m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 54m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 10h 09m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:00 → ORD 07:13AA 4043 · flown by Envoy 3h 17m Chicago ORD 10:30 → SEA 13:19AA 2520 10h 19m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ICT 17:00 → IAH 19:03UA 4316 · flown by CommuteAir 52m Houston IAH 19:55 → SEA 22:42UA 2456 7h 42m 73% 49%
UnitedDetails → ICT 17:15 → DEN 18:17UA 5630 · flown by SkyWest 53m Denver DEN 19:10 → SEA 21:10UA 360 5h 55m 68% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON