Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6466 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6466 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 07:00	DFW 11:00	10%	6%	0.7%	91%
AA 5010 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 13:53	DFW 17:49	21%	8%	0.7%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335	2h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 30m	98%	85%
United Details →	IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	6h 45m	96%	80%
United Details →	IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 15:42 → DFW 18:48UA 414	7h 13m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	IDA 11:25 → SLC 12:30DL 3944 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DFW 17:33DL 2811	5h 08m	96%	76%
United Details →	IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155	2h 35m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 29m	93%	74%
American Details →	IDA 12:53 → ORD 17:23AA 6411 · flown by SkyWest	2h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:24 → DFW 22:06AA 3544 · flown by Envoy	8h 13m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	IDA 15:22 → SLC 16:30DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	5h 01m	96%	70%
Alaska Details →	IDA 07:15 → SEA 08:21AS 3054 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 10:59 → DFW 17:00AS 341	8h 45m	95%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest	48m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	4h 45m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON