Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6411 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 12:53	ORD 17:23	20%	10%	1.2%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 55m	98%	83%
United Details →	IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Denver	DEN 21:05 → ORD 00:44 +1UA 2649	7h 30m	96%	82%
United Details →	IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155	3h 22m Denver	DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085	7h 49m	94%	76%
Alaska Details →	IDA 13:43 → SEA 14:48AS 3489 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	9h 16m	100%	74%
United Details →	IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Denver	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	7h 11m	97%	74%
American Details →	IDA 13:53 → DFW 17:49AA 5010 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346	8h 46m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247	5h 00m	83%	74%
American Details →	IDA 07:00 → DFW 11:00AA 6466 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	7h 51m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IDA 13:53 → DFW 17:49AA 5010 · flown by SkyWest	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424	6h 29m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON