tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3421 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → IDA 16:14 PDX 16:50 28% 10% 0.6% 58%
G4 3218 Allegiant IDA 15:50 PDX 16:26 35% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 09m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IDA 11:25 → SLC 12:30DL 3944 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 5h 44m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IDA 19:00 → SLC 20:09DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 5h 44m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IDA 15:22 → SLC 16:30DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 55m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 3h 56m 93% 80%
AlaskaDetails → IDA 07:15 → SEA 08:21AS 3054 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Seattle SEA 10:14 → PDX 11:21AS 3090 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 3h 12m Denver DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498 7h 45m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → IDA 17:54 → DEN 19:45UA 5551 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Denver DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770 6h 19m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest 59m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 5h 38m 88% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON