tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3054 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → IDA 07:15 SEA 08:21 14% 5% 0.6% 94%
AS 3489 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → IDA 13:43 SEA 14:48 21% 6% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Denver DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424 7h 21m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → IDA 19:00 → SLC 20:09DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 00:01 +1DL 2998 6h 01m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → IDA 11:25 → SLC 12:30DL 3944 · flown by SkyWest 50m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 4h 10m 92% 72%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 7h 56m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335 46m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874 4h 02m 83% 71%
UnitedDetails → IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest 1h 32m Denver DEN 14:00 → SEA 16:00UA 2164 6h 25m 93% 70%
DeltaDetails → IDA 15:22 → SLC 16:30DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 50m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 4h 11m 92% 64%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → SEA 21:10UA 360 7h 40m 93% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON