Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3944 IDA 11:25 → SLC 12:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3895 IDA 19:00 → SLC 20:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3944 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 11:25	SLC 12:30	5%	3%	0.5%	95%
DL 2335 Delta Flight history →	IDA 06:00	SLC 07:04	6%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 3765 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 15:22	SLC 16:30	6%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 3895 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 19:00	SLC 20:09	7%	3%	0.5%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON