Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3187 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3187 ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 1292 ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3187 Delta Flight history →	ILM 05:48	ATL 07:17	5%	3%	0.6%	98%
DL 376 Delta Flight history →	ILM 10:29	ATL 12:01	9%	3%	0.6%	98%
DL 731 Delta Flight history →	ILM 14:28	ATL 16:05	16%	5%	0.7%	74%
DL 1292 Delta Flight history →	ILM 18:48	ATL 20:35	18%	8%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON