Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4738 at 15:09 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4738 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ILM 15:09	BOS 17:21	20%	11%	0.9%	62%
B6 1290 JetBlue Flight history →	ILM 16:30	BOS 18:34	36%	21%	0.8%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ILM 05:06 → CLT 06:10AA 2493	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 08:55 → BOS 11:08AA 1533	6h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	5h 18m	95%	88%
American Details →	ILM 06:10 → LGA 07:56AA 4682 · flown by Republic	2h 34m New York	LGA 10:30 → BOS 11:53AA 4367 · flown by Republic	5h 43m	99%	87%
American Details →	ILM 07:02 → CLT 08:10AA 2760	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:18 → BOS 13:33AA 1611	6h 31m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:50 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m New York	LGA 10:00 → BOS 11:23DL 5728 · flown by Republic	4h 33m	97%	84%
United Details →	ILM 07:30 → EWR 09:30UA 3706 · flown by Republic	2h 29m Newark	EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669	5h 46m	98%	84%
American Details →	ILM 09:21 → DCA 10:54AA 5235 · flown by PSA	2h 05m Washington	DCA 12:59 → BOS 14:44AA 4380 · flown by Republic	5h 23m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 15m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 19:52 → DCA 21:28AA 5229 · flown by PSA	48m Washington	DCA 22:16 → BOS 23:59AA 2932	4h 07m	67%	54%
American Details →	ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont	56m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	4h 44m	57%	43%
Delta Details →	ILM 17:20 → LGA 19:11DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	49m New York	LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:39DL 5850 · flown by Republic	4h 19m	58%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON