Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2493 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2493 ILM 05:06 → CLT 06:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1933 ILM 20:01 → CLT 21:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2493 American Flight history →	ILM 05:06	CLT 06:10	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2569 American Flight history →	ILM 09:15	CLT 10:30	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 2760 American Flight history →	ILM 07:02	CLT 08:10	10%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 1933 American Flight history →	ILM 20:01	CLT 21:16	19%	7%	0.8%	77%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 11:04	CLT 12:24	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 12:59	CLT 14:20	17%	12%	1.6%	83%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 14:44	CLT 16:06	22%	10%	0.0%	78%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 18:06	CLT 19:29	32%	22%	1.4%	68%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 16:15	CLT 17:38	42%	21%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON