Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Charlotte, leaving 07:02, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3266 American Flight history →	ILM 07:00	DFW 09:14	12%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 2934 American Flight history →	ILM 16:35	DFW 18:51	26%	10%	1.3%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Wilmington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 24m	97%	86%
American Details →	ILM 05:06 → CLT 06:10AA 2493	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 08:56 → DFW 10:48AA 1276	6h 42m	99%	85%
American Details →	ILM 06:10 → LGA 07:56AA 4682 · flown by Republic	2h 04m New York	LGA 10:00 → DFW 12:54AA 3068	7h 44m	99%	84%
United Details →	ILM 07:30 → EWR 09:30UA 3706 · flown by Republic	3h 30m Newark	EWR 13:00 → DFW 15:50UA 2330	9h 20m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:50 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	3h 53m New York	LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869	9h 20m	99%	82%
American Details →	ILM 09:21 → DCA 10:54AA 5235 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Washington	DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177	7h 50m	96%	82%
American Details →	ILM 09:15 → CLT 10:30AA 2569	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → DFW 14:57AA 2407	6h 42m	100%	82%
American Details →	ILM 07:02 → CLT 08:10AA 2760	3h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	7h 14m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 13:21 → ORD 14:58AA 3811 · flown by Envoy	51m Chicago	ORD 15:49 → DFW 18:25AA 2754	6h 04m	68%	49%
American Details →	ILM 07:02 → CLT 08:10AA 2760	46m Charlotte	CLT 08:56 → DFW 10:48AA 1276	4h 46m	56%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON