Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3706 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3706 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ILM 07:30	EWR 09:30	5%	2%	1.3%	93%
UA 3708 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ILM 13:03	EWR 15:00	17%	5%	1.3%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ILM 05:06 → CLT 06:10AA 2493	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → EWR 09:59AA 1782	4h 53m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 41m	95%	88%
American Details →	ILM 07:02 → CLT 08:10AA 2760	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:37AA 1819	5h 35m	96%	84%
United Details →	ILM 15:41 → ORD 17:29UA 4699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	7h 58m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	7h 25m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 10m	93%	68%
American Details →	ILM 07:00 → DFW 09:14AA 3266	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:47 → EWR 16:20AA 2861	9h 20m	97%	68%
American Details →	ILM 15:31 → ORD 17:13AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549	7h 59m	95%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON