Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4682 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4682 ILM 06:10 → LGA 07:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4429 ILM 18:37 → LGA 20:29 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4682 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ILM 06:10	LGA 07:56	6%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 4428 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ILM 11:11	LGA 13:00	16%	8%	0.9%	79%
AA 4429 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ILM 18:37	LGA 20:29	32%	20%	1.4%	67%
DL 5237 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 06:50	LGA 08:36	5%	2%	2.2%	95%
DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 11:30	LGA 13:26	24%	12%	5.5%	76%
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 17:20	LGA 19:11	32%	23%	11.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON