Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3888 at 06:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ILM 06:00	MIA 07:54	9%	3%	0.9%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 09m	96%	84%
American Details →	ILM 05:06 → CLT 06:10AA 2493	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436	6h 31m	99%	79%
American Details →	ILM 07:02 → CLT 08:10AA 2760	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 09m	97%	76%
American Details →	ILM 06:10 → LGA 07:56AA 4682 · flown by Republic	1h 32m New York	LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211	6h 35m	98%	75%
American Details →	ILM 09:15 → CLT 10:30AA 2569	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912	6h 23m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 26m	100%	70%
United Details →	ILM 07:30 → EWR 09:30UA 3706 · flown by Republic	2h 01m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	7h 08m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 07m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 15:31 → ORD 17:13AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	46m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → MIA 22:20AA 2690	6h 49m	65%	43%
American Details →	ILM 19:20 → PHL 21:06AA 5816 · flown by Piedmont	49m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 32m	64%	43%
American Details →	ILM 18:06 → CLT 19:29AA 6116 · flown by Piedmont	46m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MIA 22:21AA 2321	4h 15m	56%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON