Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3811 ILM 13:21 → ORD 14:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 4009 ILM 15:31 → ORD 17:13 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3811 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ILM 13:21	ORD 14:58	19%	7%	1.0%	87%
UA 4699 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ILM 15:41	ORD 17:29	19%	14%	1.3%	78%
AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ILM 15:31	ORD 17:13	23%	8%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON