Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 6081 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 08:01	PHL 09:45	14%	10%	1.4%	86%
AA 5978 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 12:53	PHL 14:37	24%	14%	0.0%	76%
AA 5816 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 19:20	PHL 21:06	34%	21%	5.6%	66%
AA 6133 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 15:26	PHL 17:10	47%	21%	2.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON