Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3105 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 3105 IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2107 IND 16:05 → ATL 17:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3105 Delta Flight history →	IND 05:55	ATL 07:30	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3106 Delta Flight history →	IND 06:55	ATL 08:36	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	IND 10:07	ATL 11:43	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	IND 11:38	ATL 13:17	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1901 Delta Flight history →	IND 08:05	ATL 09:41	8%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	IND 13:41	ATL 15:20	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 3138 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:33	ATL 18:15	12%	3%	0.6%	67%
DL 3126 Delta Flight history →	IND 18:28	ATL 20:19	14%	3%	0.7%	83%
F9 2498 Frontier Flight history →	IND 12:20	ATL 14:07	18%	6%	0.8%	69%
WN 2107 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:05	ATL 17:40	20%	5%	0.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON