Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2108 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2108 IND 05:50 → AUS 07:20 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2110 IND 16:45 → AUS 18:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2108 Southwest Flight history →	IND 05:50	AUS 07:20	2%	1%	0.6%	100%
DL 4015 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 07:25	AUS 09:03	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 11:34	AUS 13:13	12%	4%	0.5%	90%
WN 2109 Southwest Flight history →	IND 12:45	AUS 14:10	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 18:30	AUS 20:14	17%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 2110 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:45	AUS 18:15	22%	7%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON