tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2111 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2111 Southwest Flight history → IND 07:00 BNA 07:10 3% 1% 0.5% 93%
WN 1332 Southwest Flight history → IND 19:30 BNA 19:40 24% 9% 0.6% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:50 → AUS 07:20WN 2108 1h 05m Austin AUS 08:25 → BNA 10:30WN 4319 5h 40m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155 5h 15m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113 2h 30m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 5h 55m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 35m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 11m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 54m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:30 → FLL 08:10WN 370 1h 25m Fort Lauderdale FLL 09:35 → BNA 10:50WN 4638 6h 20m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → IND 05:36 → ORD 06:00AA 4362 · flown by Republic 2h 30m Chicago ORD 08:30 → BNA 10:13AA 3439 · flown by Envoy 5h 37m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:20 → HOU 06:45WN 4645 2h 20m Houston HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068 6h 40m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IND 18:33 → ORD 19:00UA 5435 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 19:57 → BNA 21:45UA 2063 4h 12m 74% 58%
AmericanDetails → IND 13:36 → DFW 15:03AA 1955 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:50 → BNA 17:48AA 1490 5h 12m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON