Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 609 Allegiant Flight history →	IND 08:45	BUR 10:08	17%	5%	0.8%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 06:20 → PHX 07:00WN 4137	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	6h 20m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → BUR 09:15WN 2929	6h 05m	94%	87%
Southwest Details →	IND 07:15 → LAS 08:10WN 2125	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	6h 40m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:45 → MDW 06:55WN 2133	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741	8h 40m	99%	83%
United Details →	IND 08:00 → DEN 08:51UA 1607	2h 24m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	10h 00m	100%	78%
United Details →	IND 06:00 → SFO 07:42UA 500	51m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363	6h 57m	90%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IND 07:04 → SEA 08:52AS 625	51m Seattle	SEA 09:43 → BUR 12:23AS 426	8h 19m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON