Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2615 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2615 IND 09:40 → CLT 11:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1939 IND 19:44 → CLT 21:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2615 American Flight history →	IND 09:40	CLT 11:24	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2938 American Flight history →	IND 06:42	CLT 08:25	10%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 346 American Flight history →	IND 08:05	CLT 09:52	10%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 1944 American Flight history →	IND 11:28	CLT 13:13	12%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 1950 American Flight history →	IND 15:30	CLT 17:20	19%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 1939 American Flight history →	IND 19:44	CLT 21:30	24%	5%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON